climate change is happening, there’s evidence. Nevertheless, the rumor that human-caused global warming was just a thought. Its root is the fact, as myths occur: they solidify by reasoning strategies, the advantage of our structure of thought is sent, and thus the interpretation of the context (in the technical language called “frames”). Here, the focus on facts is lost. Antonia Schuster, and Michael Lindner, who have conducted research at the Potsdam Institute for climate impact research (PIK), want to educate about global warming. Among other things, with this guest post.
works, Why the cherry-picking, when someone selects only matching arguments, the connection escapes and all evidence to the contrary hides so well? Because the human being is subject to cognitive biases, so unconscious of errors in the process of Perceiving, Thinking and evaluating. What we consider to be facts, is always subjective. For example, people often hold information as true, the confirm your pre-established opinion (the so-called confirmation bias). Another example is the boomerang effect: it Is to refute a hoax clumsy, remind readers or listeners later in the correction, but only to the injected false information.
repeat Instead of belief here, and to be transparent, that may be, we want to emphasize what the research is now certain. These ten findings contradict assertions:
97 set some of the most common incorrectly % of the specialists are sure: The climate change is man-made.
it is Often claimed that there is great disagreement about whether climate change is occurring and whether it is man-made. This is wrong. The Team of cognitive psychologists John Cook evaluated almost 12,000 studies on the subject of global warming: 97% of those who positioned themselves on climate change, agreed that climate change is man-made (Environmental Research Letters, Cook et al., 2013). There are lobby groups to the fossil fuel industry, the scatter for decades, aware of doubts about this scientific consensus. If people doubt this, listen to this, you feel through the confirmation bias confirmed.
The global annual CO2 emissions are still climbing.
Just politicians give the impression that it will but has already done a lot to combat climate change – mostly associated with the note that the CO2 emissions had decreased since 1990. This is a false representation. To date, the amount of carbon dioxide is increasing, and the year for the year in the world. In particular, in China, the emissions have increased since the year 2000. In the EU and in the USA they went back slightly, but not enough (Global Carbon Atlas). According to the International energy Agency (IEA), the production of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2017 at a record high of 32.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide.
More CO2 in the atmosphere leads to higher temperatures – and Vice versa.
carbon dioxide and rising temperatures are like the chicken and the Egg: The one presupposes the other. The investigation of residues from the air, which are preserved in Ice cores over thousands of years, show, however, that there was in the history of the earth, sometimes only rising temperatures, and then an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. That’s why some people say that man-made carbon emissions will lead to warming. A typical case of cherry-picking: For the early millennia, it is true, the only, the temperature rose and the CO2 rose as a result of the CO2 released but it led to a further increase in temperature (Nature: Shakun et al., 2012). The carbon emissions of the people accelerates this increase. With 405,5 ppm (particles per Million particles), the average global concentration of CO2 today is higher than ever before.
The earth must not warm more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.
the climate change conference In Paris in 2015, it was decided not to allow the global average temperature by the end of the current century more than two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels to rise. But that would be too much. An average warming of two degrees would have dramatic consequences for the earth system: the so-Called tipping elements could be triggered, which would lead to a much stronger increase of the average global temperature. Then the impact of the already occurring climate crisis would no longer be master. Therefore, many professionals advocate a limit of 1.5 degrees. Still, it would be possible to achieve this goal, States the latest report of the world climate Council IPCC. Simple but is not: The globe is already a degree warmer than it was before the industrialization.
The real effects are often worse than the predictions.
it Comes to climate change, we are talking of Floods, forest fires and other natural disasters. This appears to be some people are alarmist, they say, a specialist would exaggerate the consequences of the assessment of the climate. The opposite is the case: The models of the IPCC are actually regarded as quite conservative. For example, the sea level rose faster than it had said, the IPCC predictions (IPCC,: Climate Change, 2007): currently, on average, with a rate of 3.2 millimeters per year. Many countries already burdened with heavy Flooding.
The climate is changing so fast that this could be extinction, the sixth mass with a trigger.
A more direct impact of the climate crisis affects all life on earth: If three-quarters of the species are disappearing and this is happening in a geologically relatively short time of a few Thousand years ago, speak to researchers of a mass. So something occurred in the last 540 million years, five times. Now, there are studies that indicate that the sixth mass extinction has already begun. In a few centuries could be, therefore, a majority of the species on earth extinct (Nature: Banosky et al., 2011).
Already dramatic Population declines in wild animals. For the species, mankind is die responsible, and not only indirectly through the induced climate change, but also directly as a result of the destruction of the livelihoods of many species, for example through deforestation or draining of peatlands.
The heat of the summer of 2018 is also the result of climate change.
The summer of 2018 was exceptionally dry and warm, even if he has not broken the heat records from 2003. From January to October 2018, the average temperature was 2.2 degrees above the average since records began 137 years ago. Farmers, Foresters, conservationists, shippers – they all have to continue to fight with the dryness. This is also due to climate change: scientists have calculated that the hot summer was in Germany just a weather fluctuation, but part of the global warming (World Weather Attribution: Otto et al., 2018). Climate change causes, although not automatically for warmer days without rain, but he makes this significantly more likely.
In Germany almost 340,000 people in the renewable energy sector
Meanwhile, renewable energies are an important business factor: 338.600 people worked in 2016 in this area, summarizes the Ministry of economy (BMWi 2018). For comparison: The coal industry, in coal mining well 5,700 people work in the brown coal, mining nearly 21.000. A total of around 70,000 jobs from the brown coal be dependent on the (statistics of the Coal industry, 2018). The numbers are so significantly behind that of the renewable energies. It is, therefore, a condensed representation to claim that the energy transition would cost jobs in Germany. What is true, however: The Jobs have very different requirements, both to the people as well as entire regions. In the affected regions, the energy transition can make people unemployed.
electric cars can Also have a poor CO2 balance.
at the Latest, since there is Tesla, to apply electric cars not only as innovative and cool, but also as a climate Savior. California has set a compulsory share of electric cars in new registrations, even China sets on ten percent electric. The view, however, is greatly simplified: Not all electricity-powered vehicle is better for the climate than gasoline or diesel equivalent – because somewhere the power has to come from Yes. The decisive factor is the design of the car, so the whole production chain, and how the power used is composed. So a car in the compact class, such as a VW Golf to drive, even after 21,000 km of climate-friendly than a gasoline engine when it is fueled with fully renewable energy. A car of the upper middle class, such as a Mercedes E-class, which is fueled with the usual German electricity mix, but have to go 580.000 kilometers to he climate is more friendly than a Diesel (ADAC 2018). In the case of electric cars, therefore, no generally valid statement can be made. To do this, it is necessary to make accurate life-cycle analyses. Electric vehicles have the potential to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions compared to conventional vehicles.
Every individual can make a change: 49% someone can reduce his diet, resulting in CO2 emissions if he/she eats no animal products.
climate protection is a good example of the tragedy of the Commons: A common property, in this case, the nature, is free and available to all. However, because people often think rather than to the community that takes the Individual more often than necessary. Because a car more on the street, it makes a Steak more on the plate but no difference. Or? Teams of researchers at the University of Oxford and the Swiss competence centre for agricultural research, of all things: to Not eat animal products in a global perspective, could the diet resulting CO2 emissions are reduced by 49 percent (Science: Poore/Nemecek, 2018). The scientists stress that changes in individual behavior can have a positive impact on the climate.
climate facts transparency note
The authors of this article, Michael Lindner and Antonia Schuster, in the summer of 2018 as a lecture at the end of a guest at the Z2X-Festival for young Visionaries and Visionary, organized the TIME ONLINE on a regular basis. The idea for this guest post on climate facts.
what are the rules on TIME ONLINE, as the organizer of the Festival and his do-gooder community Z2X reports, read here.