According to the study FinExpertiza, forced weekly simple in connection with quarantine in Russia can cause the business irreparable damage.
the industry, which will have the main blow of the forced vacation is all retail, catering, entertainment, namely movies and theatres. “Compared to last year in the first days of March the revenue of the restaurants have fallen by 30-60%, and by the end of the month, the decline has reached 90%, — has noted in conversation with “MK” head of service for entrepreneurs brizo.ru Ildar Giniyatov. In these circumstances, the holiday week is stopped working 15 thousand cafes and restaurants only in Moscow and the region, and to resume the work can not all”.
meanwhile, according to the Federation of restaurateurs and hoteliers, up to 90% of hotels and restaurants will remain closed. And the chain blow will be transmitted to companies of other spheres, serving tourists, travelers and those who eats not at home, which reduced the number of customers.
In General, the lower demand in the consumer sector due to pandemic affected small and medium business, because it is mostly concentrated in this area. On the assessment of Trade-industrial chamber (TPP) in the coming months about 3 million entrepreneurs can cease operations.
losses in the region of a trillion rubles has been predicted and prior to the announcement of this week outside, because the restaurants without it lost most of the turnover, says the expert of the Academy of management Finance and investments Aleksey Krichevskiy. “State support in the form of interest-free loans does not look very convincing — he said. — If the entrepreneur and so leveraged, and he will have to pay another loan, so as not to close completely and not fire people. It is unlikely it will go.”
So, already pledged help from the state is a necessary, but not saving. Experts believe that the promised tax breaks will not bring the companies use. The measure will not help to start the business again. “In such circumstances, need direct subsidies, grants or, at least, long-term loans at low or zero rates to ongoing payments for salary, rent, — says chief analyst at Teletrade mark in real. — Appropriate and stimulating demand at the expense of reasonable payment of money to consumers, which in turn will support people whose incomes have fallen due to the current situation.”
it is not clear how many jobs will be reduced directly because the output weeks. According to conservative estimates, no job may be 3-5 million people. But it’s the most delicate situation in which the country is coming out of quarantine in April. A more realistic forecast is more than 10 million unemployed. And about half of them will remain so for another year after the country’s recovery after a pandemic, as the crisis of oil prices and liquidity has not yet played out. In General, for coronavirus, according to the Institute for social policy studies, the number of jobs in Russia will be reduced by 20% if the recovery is 9 months, and 5% in the optimistic scenario recovery for 3 months.
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