The economy, predicted

Forecasters do not hide emotions, drawing our near future. Coronavirus a literally hamstrung the world economy, a sharp decline in the first half of the year is almost inevitable. But then the Outlook remains frightening. The pandemic coronavirus global economy will face a “terrible future”, writes Bloomberg. “The horror” is present in the forecast, senior economic Advisor of HSBC Holdings Stephen king, full namesake classic of the horror genre. True to his name, he writes: “the Coming economic prospects are terrible.” According to forecasts by the managing Director of the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva, the situation may be the same as during the global financial crisis in 2008. The same opinion is shared head of the world trade organization (WTO) Roberto Azevedo.

Actually, the global crisis is already beginning. In 2008, the collapse of financial markets began in the United States, now a full-blown economic crisis starts in Europe. The analytical Agency IHS believe the Markit purchasing managers ‘ Index (PMI), an assessment of the immediate prospects of the economy, which make themselves the Respondent Agency entrepreneurs, primarily on the basis of the dynamics of orders. The March value of this index amounted to only 31.4 per item in February to 51.6 (a reading above 50 points is considered a positive forecast, the deeper down the more pessimistic on the market).

the Current index in Europe is worse than before the 2008 crisis. Already stopped car factories, and it is a sure sign that the wave of cuts has spread to the whole economy. It touched the PSA group (Peugeot, Citroën, Vauxhall and Opel), Fiat group (Alfa Romeo, Chrysler, Dodge) and Volkswagen, which is the world’s largest automaker. Bloomberg economists predict that the European Union is waiting for the strongest drop in GDP since its formation.

the anti-Crisis measures, of course, accepted. The leader here is the United States, the bailout package funds from the budget is estimated at $2 trillion, and not less than $250 billion will be paid to the population as direct material support. This is without taking into account the reduction of the rate and the continued purchase of government securities from the market.

And what in Russia? March 20, taking decisions on the key rate of the Central Bank, as stated in the press release, considered all possible options from a rate decrease to its increase and stopped at the “Solomonovo the decision”, leaving everything as it is. To lower the rate would be several to support the economy (though not the fact that banks in conditions of high turbulence responded to the growing credit activity), but to push the ruble to fall further. To raise it would be to support the ruble, but to strike, and so weakening the economy. The ruble besides, according to the Central Bank, while should the oil, and no signs of panic.

the Decision not to change anything logically, but in fact it means that the Central Bank considers the current economic situation as not requiring the adoption of extraordinary preventive measures. It is not excluded that such optimism will come to regret.

the Government in turn has allocated 300 billion roubles in a “financial reserve” to support the affected sectors of the economy. Questions immediately appear. First, the mechanism is unclear, the use of the reserve. And this is a sign that the famous will prevail manual mode, which opens the way lobbyists.

secondly, the main sphere of governmental anti — crisis measures is the removal of the different kind of restrictions, and not direct support for demand. Underestimation of this trend is also evident in such socially significant sphere, as support for the actual citizens, and this area in the USA and Europe, significant funds are allocated.

thirdly, and perhaps most importantly, the amount allocated is minimal. For comparison: in Russia it is 0.3% of GDP, the US is approaching 9%. If the measures proposed by Putin in his address to the nation on March 25, will double the actual support of the economy and especially small and medium business, still the volume is clearly not comparable. And this knowledgecheat that the government and the Central Bank are inclined to consider the threat of impending world crisis does not require greater mobilization in the moment.

no matter How late!