When Matteo Salvini, was ousted from Government this summer, picked up a pen and marked in red all the electoral events of the next few months. He had lost the vice-presidency of the Council of Ministers, the portfolio of the Interior and the possibility of becoming the new premier. But if I was able to show that the people remained with him, the legitimacy of the Government formed by the Movement 5 Stars (M5S) and the Democratic Party (PD) by a covenant of the palace, as he calls him his communication team, would be compromised. This weekend has successfully completed the first stage of its plan in Umbria, a central region in which the parties that form the current coalition government, are presented for the first time together. The candidate of the coalition of the centre-right, a senator and exalcaldesa of the League, has exceeded 20 points to their rivals.

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The relevance of the elections in Umbria, a region of 890,000 inhabitants governed in the last 50 years by parties of the centre-left, was not the result. The League, according to all polls, it had won the battle with a lot of slack. The scandals of the previous Executive chose the balance before even starting the campaign. But the M5S and the PD had to tune a mise en scene that forced them for the first time to appear together on the same stage. In full hangover election, voices are just as important as the political head of the grillinos, Luigi Di Maio, already renege on the experiment and announce that they will not be repeated in upcoming elections.

The coalition of right-wing, formed by the League, Forza Italia and Brothers of Italy, has won with a 57,55 % of the votes, according to data published by the Italian Ministry of Interior. The alliance between the anti-establishment M5S, and the progressive PD, has been awarded the 37,48% of the vote. Some data that certifies that the wind has not yet changed in Italy, and the former minister of the Interior is still an electoral mechanism perfectly oiled.

the Salvini was installed in Umbria at the beginning of the month and swept through the region and hand to hand to ensure a resounding victory. The image to be transmitted was so important for the current Executive that the prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, also decided to participate in the campaign and be seen in the last few days. The M5S not only could see decimated its result (it has been even surpassed by the formation posfascista Fratelli D’italia) in front of his partner in Government, but that his intended rotation to the left would be committed to a catastrophic result as the obtained. In fact, the first voices of the grillinos have already announced that the experiment election with the PD —its result has not been as bad as the 5-Star and has been in 22.4%— has completed. The Executive will be maintained, but each one will be presented by your account to the next and important regional elections.

The mission was complicated and Umbria is not the square most decisive of how many will be played in the coming months, but no one expected a result that bad. The candidate of the centre-left, Vincenzo Bianconi, is a hotelier whose reputation was cemented in the reconstruction of the areas destroyed by the earthquake of 2016. Despite the importance of the issue in an area so punished, no one opted for it these days. “I could have done with a month more time,” lamented yesterday. The candidate of the right, Donatella Tesei, senator of the League and exalcaldesa of Montefalco, in contrast, was the big favorite.

the Salvini will now attempt to enforce this result as a kind of mid-term elections and will attack through the argument of the lack of legitimacy of the current Government. Umbria may not be considered a region by itself is able to destabilize completely the Executive. The following quotes yes would imply a change of paradigm in the case of the complete failure of the PD and M5S is prolonged. Especially those of Emilia Romania (January 26), a fief historically of the left, in case of passing to the centre-right, would lead to a indisimulable reflection on the continuity of this Government. And there, the attacks are multiplied. Also from flanks more unexpected, like Italy, Live, the new party created by Matteo Renzi, which will be presented to regional elections in 2022.

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