The Uk has given this Wednesday kick-started the election campaign, the more uncertain you are reminded of in the last few decades. The british are being called to vote on the 12th of December who will be his prime minister. The last time you chose a date so little favourable to take to the street to the electors was almost a hundred years ago, in 1923. Boris Johnson is convinced that, at the peak of his popularity, and with the agreement of the Brexit that satisfies the eurosceptics, you can tie up enough seats to reach the magic figure of 326: the absolute majority in a Parliament of 650 mps. Today you can hardly count with 298. The Labour is obliged to give back to the framework of the debate, to introduce social proposals, and that their constituents do not take into account the warmth of Jeremy Corbyn at the time to defend the advantages of staying in the EU. Well come to this unexpected final stretch of the main political parties.
The Conservative Party: the “sect” of the Brexit
In the last few days have not stopped listening to the laments of conservative historical moderates, by force or voluntarily, they have left a formation in which, in many cases, took decades of activism. Kenneth Clarke, Dominic Grieve, Nick Morgan… and the last, just this week, the former Economy minister, Philip Hammond, have seen how the team of Johnson will desautorizaba publicly or expelled from the ranks tories. “The parliamentary group to emerge from the upcoming elections will be monolithic. There will be no such diversity of opinion that could fit within the same umbrella,” she lamented to THE COUNTRY, Hammond made a few days ago. Before that harm to its formation, the politician has resigned to stand as an independent -your chances of getting the seat would have been high-. The Brexit has become the obsession of the conservatives, and will be the main banner of the campaign of Johnson. “I don’t want early elections. No one wants to go to the polls in December, but we have reached a point in which there was no other option,” said the prime minister at the gates of Downing Street, after asking queen Elizabeth II to dissolve the Parliament.
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Trust the conservative candidate in retaining all the votes that earned his predecessor, Theresa May, in 2017 (which resulted in 318 seats), and some more. Will focus on the constituencies of historical tradition labour where the Brexit was endorsed in the referendum in 2016, As the historical “democrats for Reagan” in the eighties decided to give the money in the united States and vote republican, Johnson is confident in his charisma and his conviction to appeal to these voters to the cause. Or at least to stay home and allow the triumph of the conservative candidate, in a majoritarian system in which the winner is done with the seat, and the rest of the ballots end up in the trash. But even though the bet does not come out wrong, part of these gains must compensate for the loss of votes to the Party of the Brexit of the ultra-nationalist, Nigel Farage. Johnson has been summoned to the polls without fulfilling his promise to pull the Uk from the EU on the 31st of October. Despite its popularity among the voters, eurosceptics, a good handful of them will punish you for your failure to comply.
The surveys will continue to be an advantage relatively comfortable. YouGov, the company of sociological analysis, gives a support of 38% to the Conservative Party, compared to 25% of the labour. It is an advantage of 13 points, but Theresa May got 16 points in the match Corbyn two years ago and ended up scratching a victory by the hairs with a margin of 2.5%.
The labour more to the left
Jeremy Corbyn takes more than a year calling for new elections. However, when the time came, he hesitated. A large sector of the labour has a vision very critical of the candidate, whose level of popularity among the british are miserably low, and they fear a debacle on the 12th of December. The ambiguity displayed by Corbyn respect to the Brexit has irritated some voters in the party who, in their majority, to defend the permanence of the Uk in the EU. The political veteran leftist, who has never concealed his euroscepticism, proposes to negotiate a new agreement with Brussels and to submit it to a referendum, including on the ballot the option of staying in the community club. “The people accusing me of speaking to both sides in the debate of the Brexit, to those who voted for exit, and to those who want to stay. And they are right. Why would you talk to only half of the country? I don’t want to live alone in the middle of the country”, said Corbyn on Tuesday in an act of the party in the town of Harlow.
The core of the direction labour is confident that it can turn around the situation, as happened in 2017. Corbyn was then 16 points behind of May in the polls, and got practically a technical draw in the final result. Believe that a message focused on the social inequality, with measures flashy as the renationalisation of the railway or the electricity, or the incorporation of workers to the boards of directors of companies can sound good in an electorate weary of years of austerity. Also know that the faithfulness of the voters labour is of iron, especially in the north of the country. Like the rejection that causes among them the figure of Johnson.
The hope liberaldemócrata
A new leader of 39 years, Jo Swinson, and a message deeply pro-european. The liberaldemócratas, which currently have 20 seats in Westminster, they believe that on the 12th of December can be your great opportunity. The Brexit will continue to focus the debate, and the alleged ambiguity of labour, they promise a dry cut and definitive: if they achieve power, revoked the article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty that set in motion the mechanism of exit from the EU. “I feel more prepared to make better the things that Johnson or Corbyn,” said Swinson, who is available to perform throughout the country a campaign-style presidential system. Its historical record is 62 deputies, but in an election as volatile and uncertain as the current may be the big surprise or a big disappointment. Everything will depend on the degree of confidence that wake up between the classes, the urban, young and educated, deeply contrary to the Brexit.
The moment of the nationalism scottish
The Brexit has been the table’s life-a nationalism that is scottish that was in low hours after losing overwhelmingly in 2014 the referendum on independence. 62% of scots voted against Brexit in 2016, and the figure of Johnson produces serious rejection in the territory of the United Kingdom. A great victory in the general elections would give the Scottish National Party (SNP), which rules presently in Edinburgh, legitimacy extra to repeat the consultation for independence in 2023. Already have a scan of the map to labour, historically strong in Scotland and today is confused in its position on the future of this nation. His goal now is to get the seats minimum to retain the conservatives, and increase your figure of 35 mps in Westminster. They know that they can be the key to a future Government.
The party of Brexit, in limbo
The ultra-nationalist Nigel Farage was raised with a crash in the past european elections. Your new Party of Brexit from the conservatives, a large part of their voters. The disaster in the handling of the Brexit on the part of the former prime minister, Theresa May, convinced many eurosceptics that Farage was the solution. The emergence of Johnson, popular among hard, has derailed the strategy of the training. Averse to any alliance or transfer that would leave you in a second plane, Farage has moved forward in its effort to present candidates in almost all constituencies. Confident that many voters will remember that Johnson promised to remove the Uk from the EU on the 31st of October “life or death” and that it has been unable to fulfil his promise. It also ensures that the agreement that the prime minister has reached with Brussels is just as bad than that achieved May, and continues to advocate the need of a Brexit wild. In the Conservative Party believe that Farage has been very neutered, but fear that in a poll in the everything is going to play for a few seats in each constituency, it is still capable of causing irreparable damage that take to Johnson the hoped-for majority.