The rumours began at the weekend, almost in the hour of the round. There is significant progress in Brexit negotiations, it was said. A Deal was within reach, reported by some media. He was already proclaimed other. Now it is clear: Shortly before the summit, on Wednesday, the EU’s “Moment of truth” declares, is nothing.
Instead, more than clear: Even if May in Brussels reached a Deal, it is unlikely that you will get him then, through the London house. The Problem: not one of the possible variants of the deal, the Prime Minister has a majority.
Recently, there was discussion that the UK remains in the EU customs Union, so that the traffic flows even after the Brexit smoothly. Northern Ireland could also remain in the customs Union, and partially in the internal market, so that not a new hard border with the Republic of Ireland.
the EU is essential.
For the Brexit-hard-liners in Mays Conservative party and Northern Ireland’s coalition partner, the DUP, but it is out of the question.
Since then, London could be complete after the Brexit no trade agreements with third countries and should also accept the EU rules without being able to still contribute.
the United Kingdom is “a colony of the EU”
The United Kingdom, scolded, Ex-foreign Minister, Boris Johnson, would in this case, the “colony of the EU”. The recently retired Brexit-Minister David Davis called on his former Cabinet colleagues on the weekend by a Newspaper to contribute to the revolt, should May want to the country indefinitely in the customs Union leave. DUP Leader Arlene Foster threatened to meanwhile bluntly with the coalition break-up: A chaotic Brexit without agreement is still better than an “annexation” of Northern Ireland by the EU.
The Brexiteers of the Conservatives, headed by Johnson, is demanding a tailor-made free trade agreements, following the example of the Ceta agreement the EU and Canada – only much more extensive. Some speak of “Canada plus, plus, plus,” Johnson of the “Super Canada”. The United Kingdom would have in this scenario, a privileged access to the EU internal market, but could finish at the same time our own trade agreements, and would, of course, do not accept the immigration of labour from the EU.
It would be perhaps the only Deal, for the May in the British house of Commons, a majority would get. However, from the point of view of the EU, it would be that cherry-picking, of which Brussels fears that it would be the beginning of the end of the common internal market. And currently, there is no reason is apparent why the EU should capitulate after two years of the unity of a sudden. On the contrary, “We remain hard,” says Elmar Brok (CDU), member of the Brexit control group in the EU Parliament. This line will be represented also at a Meeting with EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, on Tuesday.
A free-trade agreement would mean that from a Brussels point of view that the United Kingdom will lose access to the customs Union and the internal market. Such a Deal but would not reject the view of British observers, only about two dozen pro-European Tory MPs. The Ireland Problem would remain unsolved. The possible consequence: The emergency solution would be to grab that Northern Ireland would remain virtually in the single market and the customs Union of the EU, whereby the customs border to the Irish sea would be transferred. This is, in turn, both for May and for the DUP and Tory Brexiteers unthinkable.
analysis: May missing 14 to 43 votes
The London-based Thinktank Edelman has the probable voting behavior of each of the British MPs analyzed, and in a recent paper to the conclusion, that May at best has 277 votes in the lower house, for sure, 43 is too little for a victory. Even in the best case, you would need 14 votes from the Opposition. But their help may can hardly hope: The Labour party has already announced to vote against each of the head of government negotiated Deal.
“The Guardian” quoted a long-serving Tory MPs with the statement that he could not see with the best will, as May could get in Brussels, a Deal that would have in the Parliament even the slightest Chance. Another Conservative compared to may’s situation with that of a chess player shortly before the defeat: With every train, the location of resort is a loser, until in the end no longer possible. Checkmate.
Selects and May the risky Option?
In Brussels, it is speculated, therefore, that May plans to resort to the “crowbar”. You could do a Deal with Brussels and the hardliners in your party and the DUP a choice: Either you accept the deal, or you reject them and be responsible for the consequences. The not exist only in a chaotic Brexit, with devastating consequences for the British economy, but also in elections. The Prime Minister could be called after that Jeremy Corbyn, a Left arm of the Labour party and God seibeiuns the Conservatives.
“May obviously has the intention to prefer the choice to go down fighting than to let internal party opponents of the dump,” says Brok. Also, Nicolai von Ondarza, expert of the Foundation for science and policy, considers that this variation, given by Mays almost hopeless Situation is not unlikely – “but it is a very risky game”.