Viral degeneration. As the epidemic changes of external and internal policy of Ukraine (Carnegie Moscow Center, Russia)

Pandemic coronavirus has reached Ukraine. For the administration Zelensky it happened at the most inopportune moment of economic slowdown and political turmoil of the already significantly reduced more recently, the record rating of the President. The epidemic is shaking the foundations of even much more stable countries, may turn out to ze-commands the most serious consequences.

Quarantined and mistrust

Despite the fact that confirmed cases in the country is not so much the Ukrainian government immediately went to drastic measures against the coronavirus. The President announced the introduction of a national quarantine, the borders were closed for foreigners in the capital, despite the risk of traffic jams, stopped underground, and in areas where there were cases of the disease, the state of emergency. In his address to the nation Zelensky called these measures “unpopular and hard decisions”.

Obviously, the President, realizing the inevitability of the closure of the country, aims to make it before the number of deaths from the coronavirus will cause panic and unrest. Many in the country regard the action as irrational Zelensky, the economic damage from quarantine may be too large, however, the humanitarian aspects Zelensky usually outweigh the economic costs.

Another thing is that the good beginnings of President due to poor communication with the society and administrative chaos sometimes go sideways. Here you can remember how the evacuation of Ukrainians from the Chinese center of an epidemic led to a massive unrest in the regions where the protests began against the deployment they have evacuated compatriots.

Despite the relatively high rating of the Zelensky, the distrust of Ukrainians to the actions of the authorities will not dELOS and remains one of the main principles in their behavior. And in extreme circumstances, this distrust quickly takes a radical form.

in addition, associated with the evacuation of the riots clearly showed how low the level of local authorities, including new governors, appointed Zelensky. To resolve conflicts with the population had the Minister of internal Affairs Avakov, has once again proved its indispensability.

the ContextAppeal of Vladimir Zelensky to combat coronavirusWP: Zelensky doesn’t know how to end the war on vostokye Washington Post23.03.2020 pack: do Zelensky and the majority of Ukrainians of the little Russian complex?Ukrainian правда22.03.2020 the MIND: whether the Ukrainian crisis identichnosti молода20.03.2020 Daily Sabah: Zelensky urges Ukrainians to do children during карантинаDaily Sabah17.03.2020 Another challenge in the fight against the epidemic will become invincible Ukrainian corruption. Ahead of the announcement of quarantine in opposition Zelensky media reported that Ukraine was left without medical masks — they allegedly sold huge quantities to China, and the possible organizer of the scheme called the people’s Deputy from “Servants of the people” Michael Radutsky, head of the parliamentary Committee on health. The results of the investigation yet, but in any case, the shortage of masks already used by speculators raising the price on them. In response to the government given the powers to control the prices of drugs, medical and other socially significant goods.

a Potential source of corruption may be approved by the Verkhovna Rada a package of measures to combat the epidemic, where, for example, include the purchase of medical equipment to bypass standard procedures thzakupok and exemption from import duties. Like many other positive initiatives Zelensky, a nationwide campaign against the epidemic from the outset, confronted by the grim realities of the country and the severity of the measures taken is limited to the negligence of their performance.

Closing Europe

in the recession of the Ukrainian economy quarantine measures will be a serious blow. Significant reserves allocated to the business of rich countries, Ukrainian Treasury no. To compensate for the loss of small and medium business from quarantine, Zelensky instructed to declare credit and tax breaks. The last time Ukraine resorted to such measures during events of 2014.

the Restrictive measures have already caused a monetary panic: the state “PrivatBank” restricted cash dollars. In these circumstances, Zelensky has instructed the Finance Ministry to seek assistance from the IMF, and he held a private meeting with representatives of the oligarchs Kolomoisky, Akhmetov and others, which encouraged large capital to support the government in difficult times.

Later, the President said that we can talk about the amount of 12-13 billion hryvnia (about $450-500 million). In addition, it became known that each of the oligarchs Zelensky commissioned to oversee a specific region: Akhmetov will be engaged in the Donbass and Western Ukraine, Kolomoisky — Zaporizhzhya oblast, Viktor Pinchuk of Dnipropetrovsk, and so on. This strategy is also reminiscent of the events of 2014, when acting President Turchynov was appointed major of the capitalist governors of the Eastern regions, that they at their own expense provided them a defense against the separatists.

in Addition to the internal losses the Ukrainian economy will inevitably impact the global economic problems. The money goes to the markets of developing countries, and the export industry will pushll with falling prices and demand. Attraction of investments will be possible at least for the next six months, creating a risk of default on external obligations.

Former Prime Minister Goncharuk said that in 2024, debt payments will take almost a third of the expenditure budget of Ukraine (“every third hryvnia”). That default is inevitable (and not terrible), regularly States close to the power of Igor Kolomoisky. “In my opinion, what we should do with our creditors, like Greece. This is an example for Ukraine… If Zelensky will listen to (the West) and not make their own decisions, he’ll end up like Poroshenko,” — he said in an interview with The Financial Times.

Interest Kolomoisky is clear — he believes that the demands of the IMF are behind the nationalization of its “PrivatBank”, as well as refusal to return the Bank under the control of the oligarch. And depriving Ukraine of external support will inevitably put the state in even greater dependence on the oligarchy.

the Significant impact the epidemic of the coronavirus causes of Ukrainian labor migrants in Europe, which have long been a major donor to the Ukrainian economy. According to estimates of the Ministry of the economy, their remittances home by the end of 2019 was approximately $12 billion.

Now the migrants urgently leave in an epidemic that can seriously undermine the socio-economic situation in the West of the country. From Poland, where a significant part of the Ukrainian workers, were running special trains for evacuation of Ukrainians, because the border there are big queues, but for a place in the minibus require up to $150 (we are talking primarily about seasonal workers and employees in the service sector who have lost earnings due to quarantine). The Ministry of transport estimates the load on the evacuation of its citizens from chemicalsuchennyh epidemic countries of $4.1 million.

minimize the access to the European labour market could trigger a rise of euroscepticism in the Ukrainian society. Here, anxiously watching the triumph of national egotism over European solidarity in the fight against the epidemic. The indifference of European bureaucracy to the problems of Italy and Spain, Eurozone countries, themselves struggling with the coronavirus, all of this cools the European aspirations of Ukrainians. In the future it could strengthen the Pro-Russian vector in Ukrainian politics, although much here will depend on how effective will be the fight against the epidemic in Russia.

related ArticlesTreatment ZelenskyReporter: Zelensky has announced stringent security measures for коронавирусаКорреспондент16.03.2020 Zelensky: the war in the East, we will win (UNIAN)УНИАН12.03.2020 editor-in-chief: Zelensky “spat in the face of” the people who won нацизмГлавред10.03.2020 Depo: “treason” name ЗеленскогоDepo.ua05.03.2020 up: Ukraine has sharply increased the number of dissatisfied course Zelenogorska правда27.02.2020 Introduction national quarantine inevitably gave rise to suspicions that the administration Zelensky try to use restrictions on public gatherings, to push through unpopular measures, such as land law, which has repeatedly caused mass protests. However, if such plans were, in the end they decided to give up.

on March 17, the Verkhovna Rada voted for the new Prosecutor General (it was Irina Venediktova) and appointments in the Cabinet, interrupted the plenary session until early April. However, the deputies undertook to gather for emergency reasons for 24 hours. By the way, the first recorded case of infection among the deputies toranavirus found the people’s Deputy-a mazhoritarshchik from the Luhansk region Sergey Shakhov.

In emergency situations increasing criticism of the system of government established by Zelensky, where key decisions are made, the President and his inner circle. A former associate Zelensky, former Secretary of the national security Council and defense Oleksandr danylyuk questioned its effectiveness: “the preservation of the concentration of responsibility on the President at the current level is extremely dangerous for the stability of power in this situation.”

However, Danyluk proposed solution — creation of a parliamentary coalition “national salvation” seems utopian. Selfish Ukrainian elite rather happy to watch how Zelensky will drown in the fight against the epidemic. In the past in Ukrainian politics have been such an example, when Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in 2009 was linked to toxic to combat the swine flu epidemic that has fallen off its ratings.

an Important political aspect of coronavirus epic — the weakness of the Governor’s vertical. The epidemic has caught Ukraine in the process of decentralization reform should expand the powers of elected local authorities and to replace the governors (heads of regional administrations appointed from Kiev), the prefects with limited powers.

in the meantime, Zelenski appointed as governors often do not have authority and are in conflict with the local elites. “As a result, the governors are in fact present in the regions of Central power into real power in its attribute, and in crisis situations, they do not determine what is going on in their regions,” writes editor-in-chief of “the Ukrainian truth” Sevgili Musayev.

Characteristic pRimer regional sabotage — the statements of the mayor of Kharkiv Gennady Kernes, who opposes the closure of metro in the megacities. To reason with Kernes, Zelensky had to publicly threaten him with criminal prosecution. In terms of the spread of the epidemic, the weakness of regional policy will make itself felt.

Between the Kremlin and Avakov

Outbreak of the coronavirus and will substantially change the global agenda. Ukraine, who had to get used to the fact that its issues remain a priority for the world community needs to be prepared for the fact that the issues of Crimea and Donbas will depart on the second plan, the world is simply not up to them.

to Find the understanding Kiev will have first of all Moscow, that will not fail to take advantage of the situation in their favor. The fact that the head of the office of the President Andrey Ermak and Deputy head of presidential administration of the Russian Federation Dmitry Kozak has signed an agreement to establish a consultative group with representatives of the breakaway republics, has raised the IRE of nationalist-Patriotic opposition, who accused Zelensky in the legalization of the separatists.

Quarantine actions at the time prevented mass protests, but at the first opportunity they will break out again. The more that national-patriots is also shared by part of the Pro-presidential party: 28 deputies from the faction “people’s Servants” have signed a protest against the establishment of this Advisory group.

In total there is a critical mass of problems that appear increasingly unaffordable for the team’s well-intentioned idealists and Amateurs. Every day Zelensky increasingly difficult to respond to the new challenges that baffled even his far more experienced European colleagues, in desperation, comparing the current crisis with the events of the Second world war.

In these conditions caused by the epidemic of chaos in conjunction with the the old political issues may strengthen the authoritarian impulse in Ukrainian society. Will increase obviously, the influence of the security forces responsible for quarantine measures, and, therefore, the Minister of internal Affairs Arsen Avakov. It just needs to introduce a nationwide state of emergency and is making an ambitious “anti-crisis plan”, which includes an increase in the budget deficit and the restructuring of the external debt that goes far beyond his Ministerial powers.

the Successful example of China with its total mobilization and control against the helplessness of democratic States will set in the future global trend. And if the last crisis of democracy and antielitnye the revolt of the masses gave Ukraine Zelensky, what will happen to her possible worldwide turn to isolationism and a steady hand?

the new York times contain estimates of the solely foreign media and do not reflect the views of the editorial Board of the new York times.