— whether the labour market is entering a completely new reality?
— All the arguments about the future of the revolutionary changes I would have divided by ten. It is clear that the crisis is forcing many companies to test remote mode. But there is a lot of sectors of the economy where people work with information and physical objects. Transport, supermarkets, energy, sewage, cleaning of streets. We have ten years hear that the accounting profession will disappear, however, and now she is quite in demand, especially in the small and medium business. Now more than ever in demand couriers, although there was much talk about the imminent replace them with robots. By the way, is emerged yesterday. My friend in Germany, the financial Director of a large company, no office, no office. Years of working at home.
— For some sectors the current crisis will hit harder?
— business models for trade, public catering, not the magnitude of force majeure, as the closure for two months in connection with the quarantine. Now these companies have actually swept the market. Greatly affected small and medium businesses. Expecting a surge of unemployment. There is a sense that measures of quarantine are not considered. We can easily lose from 5% to 10% of annual GDP. For the economy it is much more destructive than the casualties from the pandemic.
If the quarantine drags on month three or four, how many employees can be on the street?
— If we talk about civil servants, doctors, teachers, they were not in danger. The state has complied with before them of all social obligations. Half of the workforce as a whole of 70 million people. Approximately 10-15 million employees of large export-oriented companies too have nothing to fear. At the very least they will cut salary. Yes, cuts will be, but not total. Employees of “defense” are also included in this category, although they are not state employees in its purest form. Remains small and medium businesses, there may close Polowine enterprises. In hard scenarios where the quarantine lasts for several months, without work is a risk to lose 10-15 million Russians. Among the decision-makers, are beginning to realize that the cure worse than the disease. The situation is fraught with serious socio-economic upheavals. When Russia will come of them, people will fall asleep power issues: where the money is, why we lost the job, based on what data are decisions made? The risks of excesses in this case fold greater than in the history of pension reform.
Now many people approaching retirement age are worried that their employer will fire first. How justified are their fears?
— Believe me, nobody is going to get rid of those experts who know how to cope with problems. No matter what age they may be. Pretensioner seen in my lifetime not one crisis, and better than many know what to do. This experience is valued. After the crisis will have to address specific terrestrial objectives associated with the restoration of normal life of society.
will there be a massive shift of enterprises and organizations on a six-day working week?
— of Course, those sectors that now have a heightened burden may be transferred to six days. This, for example, structures that ensure the functioning of the Internet. In addition, enhanced mode is entered in such circumstances, in areas relevant to health and medical care, delivery of food and medicine to the citizens, particularly pensioners.