across the planet, closed businesses, schools, restaurants, shops. The stock markets collapsed. Torn of the supply chain. Stopped production and air transportation. Bankrupt the entire industry. Depreciated oil. The business activity index (PMI) in UK fell to the lowest level since 1998. The world crisis — a fait accompli, or the staff need any more confirmation?
— Judging by the frankly anti-crisis measures simultaneously undertaken by the regulators of six countries of the West, we were in a situation of late 2008. The Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, ECB, US Federal reserve and the Swiss national Bank began to provide more liquidity in dollars at fixed exchange rates within the so-called swap lines. Simply put, there is a pumping markets money supply and at the same time solve another important task — to repay the dollar shortage in the global financial sector, according to some estimates reaching $13 billion. Yes, we all crawled into a technical recession, it’s only for the formal statistical evidence. The rate of world GDP for the first quarter will be known in mid-April. And up to half of the US economy, the Eurozone, Japan and China (for the first time since 1976) probably will go into the negative zone. The second quarter, which will have the peak of the pandemic, will be the most difficult for everyone. In this period the growth rates of Russian GDP will fall sharply — with a moderate 2.3 per cent (in January-February) to zero. The evaluation of the chamber of Commerce, if there is no recovery in demand until mid-summer will make it only every third company in the sphere of small and medium — sized businesses- those in Russia was about 6 million and the Rest will go bankrupt.
is it Possible to say that under the former development of the Russian economy draw a line and we will have to think about survival rather than about development?
— of Course, this is brand new for us reality, but she didn’t drop in on us unexpectedly. There was always stress scenarios, including the Central Bank according to which the price of oil stable for a few quarters fall below $20-25 per barrel. Does this negate the fact the current Russian model of economic development? No. I would be happy if it was canceled much of what is — exorbitant share of public sector, lack of competition and a comfortable investment climate, violent pressure on business. But the reason for this is, alas, no. However, in the new conditions we cannot afford to stagnate and to do just to survive. This is a direct path to economic degradation. We must move forward. Russia has considerable anti-crisis potential, it should not be underestimated. We cannot allow the business shrank to a critical size in such sectors as transport services, air transportation, tourism, restaurant-hotel sector, small and medium enterprises. They all require support, so the national projects related to state investments in these areas will play a uniquely positive role in crisis management.
however, I would like to a new reality launched the mechanisms of formation of political will. We need to pursue their structural agenda, to promote competition in our economic space, reduce the proportion of state-owned companies, to diversify the economy. Neticisi showed what we are capable to bring current resource model.
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
But allow Russia to develop somehow oil cost $20 per barrel?
— Well, there is nothing eternal under the moon. Everything changes — and rates, and price limits; sooner or later a pandemic coronavirus will pass its peak. Not overestimating their capabilities and not indulge in over optimistic euphoria, we must understand how we have enough of their resources to adapting to the global crisis, to reach the milestones on your goal, POStavlenie by 2024. They are not cancelled. If by June the pandemic will decline, the second half of the year will open some perspectives for the world and for our economy. If oil prices will be on the average at least $40, it will be a great help for us. There is still hope that the recession will not be as long and deep as in 2008-2009. However, the great microbiologist Robert Koch said that the pandemic can be stretched for two years. Well, then it will be a completely different global economy, different reality, different mechanisms of human solidarity.
— do you Agree with the statement of the Ministry of Finance, which funds the national welfare Fund will be enough to cover the lost income from lower oil prices for 6-10 years?
— First, the Ministry of Finance has determined that oil and gas revenues will drop by the amount of 2 trillion rubles, and in a week the Agency has adjusted its rating to 3 trillion. So, these estimates will change again and again. In January-February, budget expenditures rose by about a quarter compared with the figure for the same period last year. If this were not so, we would now have felt much sharper drop in oil prices and exchange rate fluctuations. NWF is a strategic resource in the form of 7.3% of GDP, and it is not too much. New contributions to the Fund can hardly be expected. The funds will be enough maximum for two years — and in a very tough economy. From investing in infrastructure projects will have to give. NWF is an important insurance mechanism to Finance, including, the national system of social support. Actually, plenty of other issues. For example, how much money should be spent on currency interventions to support the ruble at a sustainable level, relatively speaking, 80 rubles per dollar and 85 per Euro? In addition, selling foreign currency, our monetary authorities thus Finance the budget deficit.
the government has a crisis management plan, wasagaui, in particular, the creation of a special Fund of 300 billion roubles, including due to the optimization of budget expenditures. Also provides for the deferral of tax payments for tourism and air transport. In addition, it will offset the income of people who are quarantined. How adequate are these measures? What else could take power?
— the Situation is changing every day and every hour. In this sense, the government’s plan — a kind of contour map, sketch, sketch. It indicates only the directions: let’s help those who need it the most, will expand the support area. One in particular, only time will tell and development. 300 billion rubles — this is, strictly speaking, the reserve Fund, the direct costs of combating coronavirus and elimination of consequences of a pandemic. There are prescribed sick leave, emergency assistance to air carriers that go bankrupt, and other initial steps. Today the entire budget, all funding sources that are available to the state, are, in fact, a crisis. The project recorded that the Bank will sell the currency to weaken oversight requirements for lending to the most affected companies. I do not exclude that in the future will have to go on a repetition of measures which have been taken during the crisis of 2008. The authorities immediately started to reduce the income tax, and then restored it. Maybe will have to do the same on insurance premiums, reducing rates and at the same time pulling businesses out of the informal sector in white.
on the other hand, we should look at the actions of other States. For example, in the UK, announced a stimulus package of 15% of GDP, in the amount of 30 billion pounds. I wonder whether they can maintain business and population? In the US bailout package of $850 billion, involves the temporary suspension of the payment of income tax, targeted subsidies for citizens. If America breaks out full-blown recession, the lion’s share of funds will go to help the beSrebotnik. However, the price of the issue — a huge budget deficit. Options with beautiful sentences in the world are myriad, you just have to clearly imagine the consequences, including financial stability. We cannot afford to undermine the sustainability of economic development.
— whether, as claimed by the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, the available budgetary resources will allow you to fulfill all social obligations and instructions of the President on the results of the message to the Federal Assembly?
— Until social obligations have enough money. Another thing is that financing will be slightly shifted in time. Siluanov also said that the measures of the presidential message will begin to be funded in July. By this time we will have some clarity at the peak of the pandemic. Current year not yet give grounds for panic. Although he generates a lot of headaches due to the fact that you have to spend more than planned than we. Just to keep the economic situation stable in the parameters.
— What will happen to income?
— They are directly linked with economic growth. If the latter will tend to zero, then the income naturally falls to 1-1,5%. If the economy will shrink by 1,5–2%, then the revenue will lose 3-4%. In the best case we stabiliziruemost at last year’s level. The same for the real wage, how do they grow? Here a working guide — 0-0,5%, but can jump and below. While there is no formal, statistical evidence of the crisis, no one can predict the parameters of GDP in 2024. What is clear is that the macroeconomic forecast is hopelessly outdated. The pace of growth, we always believe too late, and incomes — they are here and now. We need to support the livelihood of the people, therefore, have to take preventive measures. The challenge for the next year to prevent an increase in the number of Russians with incomes below the subsistence minimum. If the government would achieve this, will be a bighurry.
— Reports about the spread of the coronavirus in Russia caused consumer panic: people emptied store shelves, began feverishly to change rubles for dollars and euros. Whether such a reaction, and what you are, for their part, would advise the average consumer?
— this has many roots. People react to information spontaneously, making no attempt to understand, to separate “flies from cutlets”. Often in the top Internet search engines are fixed openly fake news that hang there for a day. For example, with the announcement on 20 March that Moscow will impose strict quarantine regime, almost curfew. The survival instinct turns into a panic inhibits rational thinking. Well you bought 20 packages of pasta that’ll make them? What’s next: tomatoes, ketchup, mayonnaise? So these products don’t last very long. Look, if you have decided on something to spend, think about home appliances, refrigerators, televisions. Update your wardrobe for the children. From anti-crisis of adaptation there are two key areas — health and education. Especially now that have a lot of opportunities to get something remotely, some new knowledge and competence. If the price of a barrel of oil falls to $20, how would the Central Bank do not support the ruble, the dollar will cross the mark of 80. Should not hurry to change rubles for dollars — believe me, after some time the American currency will have to sell. Today all the events that all stressful situations are pressed literally up to a few hours, I call it the law of acceleration of historical time. But all this requires decisions not only fast, but adequate.