According to the publication, mortality rates, usually take into account only reported cases of a new type of coronavirus infection, which usually occur in severe form and therefore come to the attention of doctors. At the same time mild cases — not always can be taken into account.
Scientists have tried to calculate the actual mortality rate from COVID-19 and to understand how many people might be infected. To do this, they studied the prevalence of coronavirus among people who returned to their native country flights from the Chinese Wuhan, the first known focus of infection.
were Repatriated people passed the tests based on the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). PCR can detect the pathogen even in the presence of a few molecules of its RNA/DNA, that is in the very early stages of the disease or its course without symptoms.
however, scientists have considered tens of thousands of infections inside and outside the mainland of the people’s Republic of China, and 3711 people aboard cruise ship Diamond Princess.
About 0,66% of cases the virus will die, which is significantly more than 0.1% of patients dying from the flu, scientists have estimated. This is not the 2% mentioned by the head of the National Institute of Allergy and infectious diseases, USA Anthony Fauci.
the study says that among people 80 years and older the mortality rate will be around 7.8%. The deaths were assessed as extremely rare among children younger than 9 years old — just 0,00161%.
From the point of view of scientists, for infected under the age of 40 the mortality rate will not exceed 0,16%. So, out of 1000 infected young people 1-2 may die.
As one of the study’s authors, Professor Azra Ghani, the analysis “clearly demonstrates” that at the age of 50 years and older hospitalization are much more likely than under the age of 50 years, and most cases can lead to death.
the Average time from the first signs