Oil: Lukashenko has put Moscow on his knees? (Belarus news, Belarus)

Rumas announced the combined formula

“Literally on Saturday we reached agreement with the Russian government that all Russian companies will be able to supply oil without a premium,” he said Rumas on March 24.

He explained that the award to the Russian oil suppliers amounted to 11.7 per dollar. “This award seven dollars reduce company. That is, the company will supply oil with a premium 4.7 dollar. They will be resolved interbudgetary calculations. That is, the government will take these 4.7 dollar on themselves,” decoded Premier.

As you can see, the formula is combined, but in fact the Minsk insisted. Moreover, the Russian government, first, apparently, conducted outreach with the leadership of NK, and the second assumed part of the costs. Although in the past the Kremlin has insisted that there is a market and we say, we will not interfere.

Sechin was casually involved Lukashenko

we Can say that the Minsk oil conflict lucky. There would be no happiness, Yes the misfortune has helped.

In early March, Russia broke restraining oil deal with OPEC. Thus Moscow hopes to lick American competitors — producers of shale oil. But ran into a price war by Saudi Arabia, which increased production, began to dump and set out to oust the oil markets of Russia itself. The cost of oil production the Saudis are much lower than among Russians.

In General, those going for wool may come back shorn. Especially when you consider that even the state petrochemical company of China Sinochem, fearing U.S. sanctions, agreed to remove Rosneft from the tenders for the purchase of oil.

it is Not surprising that in such an unfavorable scenario (probably soon oil will be nowhere to go) The Kremlin and Russian oil magnates softened his stance in the negotiations with Belarus. Because it is a fairly large and stable customer, and historically sharpened on Russian oil.

While the global collapse in oil prices, according to many commentators, triggered the Executive Director of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin, Vladimir Putin proved that the gap with OPEC will be for the benefit of Russia. In this regard, the Russian “Novaya Gazeta” is aptly named Sechin “hero DNA”.

Note that he arrived in Minsk and held mysterious talks with Lukashenka on 18 February. Unlikely, of course, they wove a world conspiracy. But in the end the head of Rosneft, is clearly not thinking about the fact de facto helped the Belarusian President to succeed in the oil conflict, which lasted from the beginning of the year.

Minsk on horseback, and can even pick and choose

meanwhile, according to Rumas, yet the fact that Rosneft (which continues to insist on the award of five dollars per ton) will be among the vendors. “We will give priority to those companies which in a difficult time for us (first quarter) supplying oil without a premium. Gutseriev’s company, a small company,” the Belarusian Premier said.

As you can see, Minsk is on horseback and can even afford such pickiness. But how big this victory of the Belarusian side, and for how long oil the reconciliation with Moscow?

“Russia has lost the oil war, but Lukashenko did not win,” — said in comments to Naviny.by editor of the website of the expert community “Nashe mnenie” (Minsk), expert in the issues of the Belarusian-Russian relations Valery Kostygova.

She believes that the named Roumas conditions of oil togoverenance for Minsk good, but reminds that we are talking only about the award. “The issue of compensation for the tax maneuver, which Belarus has achieved all the year 2019, do not dare,” — emphasizes the expert.

In her opinion, both sides are not satisfied with the terms of the armistice, which concluded, apparently, only until the end of the year. In the future, Minsk will try to insist on compensation for the tax maneuver, involves the interviewee Naviny.by.

How Belarus will win on the cancellation of the award?

Indeed, the prize after all, you can only undo once. But Russian oil and without it will be more expensive due to the tax maneuver, which will last until 2024. And losses as a result of this process, the Minsk estimates at $ 11 billion.

And how many do you think will win the Belarusian side is if you cancel the award to the Russian tax code? If we now take the Russian oil at the maximum, in proportion to the indicative annual balance (24 million tons), then for the remaining three quarters will be 18 million tons. Multiply by 11.7 per dollar received 210,6 million dollars.

the ContextPresident of Belarus Alexander LukashenkoBut this surely overstated the amount. So much oil, apparently, is not required. After all, first Belarusian refineries de facto processed for 18 million tons of oil a year. On March 23, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Krutoy said: “the Quarter has already passed, so there should be more technicalthe cue of the ability of plants to evaluate. How will they be able to recycle”. The source Naviny.by in one of the Russian tax code predicts that for the second quarter from Russia “at best” will be delivered about 3 million tons of oil. According to him, “now will take only for plants. Before there was permanezca you on exported oil. Now perenoski will not.”

He also noted that “now the world situation is different. When everyone is on it now will not earn”. And recalled that in addition to all Belarus has obligations for the purchase of oil before alternative suppliers.

do Not forget the casualties of the oil war

And not only in the already concluded contracts for alternative oil. Earlier, Lukashenko has set the task, in principle, to diversify sources of oil that in future, Russia accounted for no more than 40-50%. The Rumas recently said that even if supplies from Russia are normalized, Belarus will still buy at least two alternative tanker of oil a month.

Thus, given the optimal utilization of plants (the extra oil is not needed) and continue alternative supplies, Minsk is likely to win on the cancellation of the award until the end of the year and did some 100-150 million dollars.

meanwhile since the beginning of the year Belarus has obviously already lost more due to the fact that plummeted the export of petroleum products. In January foreign markets was delivered to 305.9 thousand tons of oil products — by 3.3 times less than in the same period last year. That is not surprising: Russian oil deliveries in January were also three times lower than a year earlier.

In General, Lukashenka in the oil confrontation won psychologically, but the money Belarus, perhaps even lost.

the Temptation is to turn the alternative

However, the psychological benefit may be lost if the Minsk, delighted local Victoria on the Eastern front, quietly roll only just emerging oil alternative.

there is Such a danger, says Kosturova. The government, in its forecast, will try to maintain “at least the minimum required to maintain alternative routes the volume of purchases of oil.” But nobody knows how will behave in this matter Lukashenko, said the interviewee Naviny.by.

I recall that when between Minsk and Moscow happened pacification after the oil war of 2010, Belarus quickly turned off the supply of oil from Venezuela and Azerbaijan. Will probably be such a temptation now.

Experts predict that in Belarus the year of the recession

first, the Russian oil even with premium is cheaper than world market, and even on reclaimed conditions — even more so.

second, it is not necessary to wrestle with the logistics, to Tinker with these tankers, tanks, repair and laying of alternative pipes. Refineries in Novopolotsk and Mozyr initially, since Soviet times, sitting on the Russian steel.

third, there is now a global recession, reinforced by the onset of coronavirus, and it threatens to undermine our economy, the finances can sing songs. So tempting to rely on the principle of “let well alone”. Russia gives oil even drown — well, what to turn his head around, to go to the extra expense?

No time to relax

However, if the Minsk cease to turn his head in search of alternatives, we do not have any at the end of the year again, the love expressed Lukashenko, to kneel in front of Moscow? She has repeatedly used its monopoly in the the supply of energy resources to put pressure on Belarus in the next debate.

A conflict between Minsk and Moscow — the who and small truck. Compensation for the same tax maneuver of the Russian leadership connects with the “deepening of integration”, which threatens Belarusian sovereignty.

So now is not the time to celebrate and relax. There comes a time when the political will of the Belarusian leadership to weaken oil dependence of Russia will be tested.

the new York times contain estimates of the solely foreign media and do not reflect the views of the editorial Board of the new York times.