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the TV Channel “cinema” published “absolute prediction” winners of the award “Oscar” – one of a kind and designed according to a unique methodology, a list of the main contenders for awards this year, which put often. It takes into account two factors: the opinions of major world publications and data largest bookmakers. Using this list, you can see what experts see as a winner and why.

To compile the “prediction” was selected 10 sources, the total coverage exceeding 267 million people per month: portals THR, Variety, Rolling Stone, MovieWeb, GQ, Rotten Tomatoes, “the Movie”, “IMDb”, GoldDerby, specializing in the forecasts in the field of entertainment, and one of the world’s largest bookmakers William Hill.

the list of future Oscar-winners were those who predicted victory, the most sources:

“Best film” – “1917”.
Best Director – Sam Mendes (“1917”);
the Best actor – Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”);
Best actress – Renee Zellweger (“Judy”);
“Best supporting actor” brad pitt (“One day in Hollywood…”);
“Best supporting actress” – Laura Dern (“a wedding story”);
“Best animated film” – “toy Story 4”;
“Best foreign film” – “the Parasites”;
“Best original screenplay” – PON Joon-Ho and Han Jin-Won (“Parasites”);
“Best adapted screenplay” the secret of Waititi (“Jojo Rabbit”).

the Title of best film, according to most predictions, will receive a war drama Sam Mendes “1917”, sliding its main rival – the tragicomedy “Parasites”. The author of the portal MovieWeb called the work of Mendes stunning performance and yet a political statement, a columnist for Variety notes that to represent the victory of the film is simple: the story of “Oscar” remembers many of the winning films about the war, among them “the English patient”, “Platoon” and “the hurt locker”. In win katiny Sam Mendes was not sure just movie website “the Movie” version of which puts to the retro-drama “Once upon a time… Hollywood” as well as aggregator Rotten Tomatoes, which awaits the triumph of “Parasites”.

One of the largest bookmakers in the United Kingdom, William Hill has established “1917” the lowest odds to win – of 1.61 (the lower the coefficient, the higher the probability of a given outcome). Nominated-outsider analysts believe racing drama “Ford vs Ferrari”. Its coefficient of 251.00. But that doesn’t mean the movie nobody likes. The rating on Rotten Tomatoes talking about universal love to the project: the audience (rating is 98 percent) and critics (92% approval reviews).

Photo: AP/Chris Pizzello

Journalists of Rolling Stone (although I predict the victory “1917”) believe that “Irish” are better than others in all parameters. But, according to them, the Academy would never give the award to the Netflix service, which takes away from the cinema business. Hence, another project of the online platform, the melodrama “the Marriage history”, also there is no victory.

Sam Mendes, the Director of “1917”, predicting to become the best Director of all experts of our list, in addition to Variety. Explorer editions Marc Malkin suggests that “Parasites” will win in the nomination “Best international film”, and then technically “Oscar” will take place in Korea, but not in person mon Joon Ho. Therefore, academics will be awarded to Korean Director statuette to convince you that winning the Oscar belongs to him. The Hollywood Reporter reminds us that academics generally appreciate the scale in terms of production project, and this parameter “Parasites” do not lag behind “1917”. But at Pont Joon Ho still less likely to award Directors Guild awarded its prize to Sam Mendes, and the winners of the Director’s award is almost always won the “Oscar”. This view was shared by the bookmakers who have installed Sam Mendes odds to win at 1.14. The least chances to win Todd Phillips, the Director of “Joker”, won the Golden lion at the Venice film festival and hitting the jackpot in the global rolled products (fees amounted to 1.07 billion dollars). Bet on it taking a ratio of 67.00.

Forecasters are unanimous about the two nominations: “the Best male role and Best male role of the second plan”. Critics and bookmakers have no doubt that Joaquin Phoenix will get an Oscar for the role of the Joker. The coefficient on the victory, which established William Hill is 1.02, which means that Phoenix is absolute favorite race. An outsider acting nomination bookmakers think Leonardo DiCaprio is his ratio of winning is equal to 81.

the Next opponents of the Phoenix, according to Rolling Stone, Antonio Banderas and Adam Driver. Banderas in the movie “Pain and glory” has played a major role in my life, and therefore deserve a nomination for “Oscar” – the first in a long career. Brilliant Driver could come to the stage of the Dolby theatre on February 9, but “mass insanity, which caused the guy in the clown mask makes this scenario unlikely.”

No doubt the experts that the award for the role of the second plan will get brad pitt starring at Tarantino in the way of stuntman and faithful assistant not too successful Hollywood actor. Although to say that pitt here supporting actor, even unjustly: in the picture he spends less time than his partner Leonardo DiCaprio, who is nominated for “Best male role”.

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His second Oscar in his career for his role in the biographical drama “Judy” ‘ll take Renee Zellweger. The actress, who embodied on-screen image of Judy garland, is an absolute favorite of the race. For her role in the film, she has already received many awards, including a Golden globe. The Academy loves it when actors drastically change for the role: they noted the dazzling beauty of Charlize Theron, which I had to mutilate themselves for the sake of “Monster”, and the same Renee Zellweger, that wouldLa much forced to get better, to become Bridget Jones. Despite this, according to the authoritative portal MovieWeb, cross the road Zellweger may Cynthia Erevo is the only black nominee for “Oscar” this year. The movie “Harriet,” in which she plays a fighter against slavery in the United States, spoke about the problems which are actual in our days. Bookmakers William Hill put Erevo only on the third place ranking. In the first place they have Renee Zellweger with a factor of 1.02, followed far behind by the ratio (17,00) is Scarlett Johansson.

the award for the best female role of the second plan will definitely give Laura Dern, the actress who, according to Rolling Stone, never disappoints. But forecasters note and Scarlett Johansson have Secretly of Waititi. The actress is also nominated for his starring role in the movie “Wedding story” and award her a prize for participation in “Jojo Rabbit” would mean the reward for a year of work. Playing the mother of a boy who fantasizes that Hitler was a friend of his, she carefully steps over the place where the fun stops and the mountain starts. The bookies are much more likely to win than Johansson (the ratio of 26.00), see Florence Pugh from “Little women” (the ratio of 13.00), Margot Robbie from “Scandal” (with a weight of 11.00) and of course Laura Dern – she tops the rankings with a factor of 1.05. The top five Kathy Bates, whose role in “Richard Guella” brought third career nomination for “Oscar”.

Experts predict that other important rewards will be distributed so: “Jojo Rabbit” will get the victory in the nomination “the best adapted scenario” “the Parasites” will take two statues for “Best international film” and “Best original screenplay”, and “toy Story 4” will win in the nomination “the Best cartoon”.