Bad news for the portfolio of the French. The course of the black gold, which rose throughout the year, are likely to continue their momentum in the coming weeks. While he was around 56 dollars (49 euros) in October 2017, the price of a barrel of Brent is now in the neighbourhood of 80 dollars (70 euros).
An increase of nearly 40 %, which continues to boost inflation and may hinder the economic rebound expected in the fourth quarter in france. A perspective all the more worrying that a new outbreak on the market is expected after the November 4, and the entry into force of the u.s. sanctions on iranian exports of crude oil.
regardless of the magnitude of the movements to come, accountants and ministers are going to have to bring out the calculators. The national Institute of statistics and economic studies (Insee) table, to the end of the year 2018, on a barrel to $ 75 (65,40 euros). A target that does not reflect the peaks in October and will probably need to be increased.
New taxes at the beginning of January
To what effect ? “If the courses have stabilized finally at 80 dollars, inflation would be determined to a tenth of a point, from 1.8% to 1.9%,” notes Frédéric Tallet, head of the syntheses institute Insee. The increase, in this case, would be passed mechanically on the purchasing power, a leading indicator of the return policy.
According to the Insee, the latter is expected to regain a bit of strength in the fourth quarter, with the average increase estimated at 1.7 %. As a consequence, notably, of the total abolition of the unemployment contribution to the assets and the 30% decline in the property tax for eight out of ten households. But inflation, if it kept to its levels in summer due to energy prices, which would complicate things. In the wake of the black gold, the regulated tariffs for gas will increase again…