in Addition to the announcement of the week, additional factors for the fall of the ruble was the statement about increasing taxes on dividends paid by offshore funds, as well as the introduction of interest on deposits in excess of 1 million rubles. According to the proposal, for those who bring their income in the form of dividends to foreign accounts, you must enter the tax rate of 15%. In turn, interest rates on large deposits, according to the President, it is necessary to impose income tax at 13%, which will bring in a budget of around 120 billion rubles.
“on the ruble influenced by mixed signals from the markets in anticipation of the teleconference of the leaders of the G-20 countries, which is scheduled for March 26 and will be completely closed to the press”, — said the head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev.
“in addition, negative for the ruble exchange rate is affected by the increase in the number of unemployed in the U.S. due to the coronavirus to record levels — about 1 million people. The uncertainty on future oil demand, commodity prices adds significant volatility. Bbl is trading in the range of $25-30, which leaves the exchange rate of the Russian currency in the area 77 to 80 rubles per dollar”, — stressed the Director of the office of sales “BCS” Vyacheslav Abramov.
However, most investors, and obychnyh the Russians are interested in the question, as in the period of quarantine vacation will be the currency of exchange and be designated the official rate of the dollar and the Euro. Many fear that the Bank of Russia in advance will significantly lower the cost of “wood” in order to prevent possible circumstances that can adversely affect the situation with the dynamics of domestic currency.
“Moscow exchange from 30 March to 3 April, according to its official statement, will work in a regular mode”, — calms the Deputy head of IAC “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova. — However, the trading schedule is still unknown and will be published later.”
“as for fears of a sharp depreciation of the ruble, whichthe second can go to CB to compensate for future challenges on the commodity and currency markets, the regulator has already taken a number of measures to stabilize the national currency (if March 18 sale of foreign currency by the Central Bank on the domestic market amounted to 7.7 billion rubles, it is already March 20, they had almost doubled to 13.3 billion roubles, “MK”). However, typically, the regulator applies to national currency after the fact, not beforehand,” said the Deev.
meanwhile, according to the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, the regulator was not determined in advance of any “critical” of the Russian currency, after which will begin to take measures for its stabilization. “Usually the exchange rate is determined as follows: take the average weighted value of the dollar at the auction of a Single trading session, the current from 10.00 to 11.30 GMT. The resulting value gives the official exchange rate for next day and weekend. Saturday-Sunday and during the holidays the Bank of Russia does not change course, it is unlikely that in such a situation, the regulator will be guided by some other event”, — says Abramov.
According to Milchakova intentionally to devalue the ruble at the present time does not make sense, as such transactions will only increase inflationary expectations and lead to unnecessary panic, queues at the ATMs and the increased demand of the population for cash currency. In the context of epidemic and quarantine such sentiments, no one will be good. In addition, the regulator is not interested in reduction of solvent demand and the growth of delinquency and default on loans more rapidly than the spread of the coronavirus in the world.
If the Central Bank wanted to weaken the ruble and prevent it from sharp appreciation, the regulator at the last meeting of the Board of Directors took the decision on new reduction of the key rate instead of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 6%. “However, apparently, the Central Bank does not intend to do the opposite of step — that is, to fix the ruble exchange rate or to introduce a currency corridor, as the situation razvivaetsaI unpredictable. Of course, you can spend a large part of the accumulated reserves to keep the dollar in the “to epidemic” positions, but the situation at the wrong time risks to get out of control. However, in the week not to expect any surprises, probably not worth it. The dollar remains in the range of 77.5-80 rubles, and the barrel is unlikely to grow above $27-31″, — predicts Milchakova.
Read also: Putin’s “tax the rich”: whether to withdraw deposits from banks