the start of The process on the part of the Government of Donald Trump to withdraw the united States from the Agreement of Paris has triggered a flood of public statements of representatives in defense of that covenant. So have leaders of China, France, the European Commission, Spain, Chile… Only the U.S. has removed up to now the climate change agreement, signed in 2015 in the French capital. The rest of the big emitters –China, the European Union and India– continues to within. But one thing is to defend it through statements and another is being on the path to meet the goal that establishes this covenant: that warming is to remain within manageable limits. A group of experts, headed by the former president of the IPCC –the panel of scientific advisors of the UN– Robert Watson, has analyzed the commitments of the 184 countries that have submitted plans to cut emissions up to now and the result is that less than 20% of them are considered to be sufficient to meet Paris.

This 20% of achievers is dominated by the bloc of the European Union. The 28 are added Iceland, Lichtenstein, Monaco, Norway, Switzerland, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova. All of them, according to this analysis, sponsored by the organization Fundación Ecológica Universal (FEU), have plans of trim that secure reductions in 2030, its greenhouse gas emissions of at least 40% compared to 1990 levels. In the case of the EU, Liliana Hisas, executive director of FEU, estimated that some projections suggest that the measures adopted will lead to a reduction of up to 58% of these emissions.

The Paris Agreement obliges all States that join the pact to submit plans for cutting their emissions of greenhouse gases, responsible for the overheating of the planet according to the majority of the scientific community and linked, mainly, to the use of fossil fuels. For the moment, 184 States have submitted programs of trim, that are disparate, and in many cases difficult to compare. These plans crop of all countries must serve to the average increase of the temperature on the planet is to stay below two degrees above pre-industrial levels, and to the extent possible under 1.5.

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The report produced by this group of specialists set as a goal to evaluate States the objective of 1.5 degrees. And, as detailed, to ensure that the temperature remains below this threshold in 2030 are to be reduced, global emissions 50% compared to the industrial levels; and by 2050, will achieve zero-emission. The analysis of the plans of clipping of the countries for the next decade, these experts conclude that only the 20% of countries are on the path to comply with that route of elimination of their emissions. The rest, at least in the commitments submitted to the UN, is not on track.

“we’re in a critical situation”, warns Pablo Canziani, a doctor of Physical Sciences and member of the IPCC. Because the sum of all the current contributions will lead to an increase of more than three grades, as has already warned the UN. “This means that measures to tackle climate change should be doubled or tripled in the next decade to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030”, the report says.

The study suggests that 75% of the 184 plans so far presented are insufficient to stop climate change. Then there is a small group of States, 12 countries, representing 5% of the total, the study determined that have a few plans, “partially sufficient”.

emissions

The problem is not only numerical, that is to say, lies not only in the fact that 75% of the countries are not in the correct path. The main stumbling block is the volume of greenhouse gas emissions from countries that are not being ambitious. Because the EU only accounts for 9% of the overall emissions; recalls the report. The major issuers are now, in addition to Europe: China (26,8%), Usa (13,1%), India (7%) and Russia (4.6 per cent). China and India are within the category red to the report, the countries with plans of trimming insufficient. Russia hasn’t even submitted yours. And the united States –whose plan dates from the time of Obama and also are judged as insufficient in the report– has started down the road to get out of the agreement.

“we’re very far from reaching the two degrees,” warns Canziani. “And the more you delay the measures, the greater will be the economic costs and environmental”. The report points out, for example, that economic losses and damages 690 extreme weather events of 2017 accounted for losses of us $ 330 000 million. By 2030, researchers warn, are expected to have been bent.

Increasing ambition

But it’s not all bad news. The own Paris Agreement sets out a timetable for upward review of the national plans for cutting emissions. In 2020 will the first review and there are about 70 countries that argue that present new contributions, even though neither India, nor China, nor Russia are still within that block. The climate summit to be held in December in Madrid should serve to achieve the commitment of more States to increase its ambition on global warming.

The report notes that “97% of the 184 promises weather are the same that were initially presented in 2015 and 2016”, when it was closed by the Paris Agreement. For the moment, only six countries have revised their plans: four have promised cuts more strong and you two have weakened their goals.

“This report is a wake-up call to the new leaders,” says Canziani. “You need leadership of the countries most issuers and of the citizens who live in countries with per capita emissions higher,” concludes this researcher.

11,000 scientists warn of emergency weather

A group of more than 11,000 scientists have adhered to a manifesto, published in the journal Bioscience, which warns that “the planet Earth is facing a weather emergency”. The writing recalls that 40 years ago, scientists from 50 nations gathered at the first world Climate conference in Geneva (1979) and already warned of the “alarming trends” on climate change and the need to act. Four decades and several tens of summits and two climate agreements later, “emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase rapidly, with effects increasingly disruptive on the climate of the Tierrto”.

For this reason, these scientists are asked to increase efforts to preserve the planet. And proposed measures are implemented in six specific fields: energy, pollutants of short duration, nature, food, economy and power. The signatories argue that the necessary changes involve “major transformations in the way our global society works and interacts with natural ecosystems”. And applaud the global movements led by the school are doing to raise awareness.

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