The PSOE would win clearly the elections of 10 November, with 32.2% of the votes and a range of between 133 and 150 seats, according to the latest barometer from the Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) published this Tuesday.
Analysis | The Moncloa trust in the CIS between the skepticism of all others The PSOE consolidated its position as the party with the most seats, according to the CIS Can be maintained and More Country would not get their own group, according to the survey The CIS attributed to Vox a sharp decline The PP is still without seats in the Basque country and maintains the Álvarez de Toledo
In the most favorable scenario for Pedro Sanchez, the socialists joined by an absolute majority with United we Can. But the CIS of José Félix Tezanos leaves open other options: also joining with Citizens. The grand coalition (the sum of the first two parties, PSOE and PP) would have up to 231 deputies, well above the absolute majority (176). The survey was conducted from 21 September to 13 October, the eve of the understanding of the judgment of the procés: does not account for the violent riots that followed the failure of the Supreme days later, and the exhumation of Franco.
The CIS grants a difference between the blocks left and right of up to 13 points, despite the 28-To was recorded almost a tie. The poll gives PSOE a result which is manifestly better than that of the latest published surveys. And it gets worse the numbers of the PP: the party of Paul is Married, with a 18.1% for the estimate of the vote would go up with respect to the April general and would get between 74 and 81 deputies, is a strong ascent with respect to the 28-To but below the polls that place him at around 100 seats. Citizens happen to be the fourth force, above Vox, with a 10.6% of the votes and between 27 and 35 seats. The party of Albert Rivera is still low —in April, won 57 seats, but limited the damage with respect to which estimated main homes of analysis.
United we Can regain the third position and would move into a fork between 37 and 45 seats (compared to the 42 it won in the past general elections) and 14.6% of the votes. More Country, the platform that leads Íñigo Errejón along with Compromís and Equo, you would get between three and four deputies, far short of the expectations generated in the last few weeks. One of the consequences of getting representation only by Madrid and the Valencian Community is that it does not have parliamentary group in the Congress. Unlike the push that you give to other surveys, Vox would drop with regard to the April elections and with 7.9% of the intended vote would be between 14 and 21 seats (six months ago got 24).
The results of the CIS deviate from those of the majority of polls published these days. The surveys published by the various media seem to indicate that the PSOE will keep your results of the 28-To, a rise of PP up to 100 seats, a remarkable rise of Vox and the collapse of Citizens. In its survey of April, published before the last general elections, the results of the CIS coincided in large measure with the final figures of 28-A.
The CIS attributed to the socialists an estimate of vote of 34.2 per cent in the barometer of September, more than five points above of the result in the general elections of April (28,68%). The PSOE turned to the PP, which obtained a 17.1%, four tenths more than the 28-To (16,70%). Citizens already was, according to the surveys of the CIS, the party that suffered the drop more pronounced with respect to its result in the general six months ago (15,86%). The party of Albert Rivera lost three points. The CIS granted to Vox in September to 7.5% compared to 10,26% in the last general.
Sánchez stands as the best-rated
Pedro Sanchez is the leader best-rated according to the last work demoscópico of the CIS. The chairman-in-office and secretary general of the PSOE obtained 4 points out of 10 possible, although since July he has lost six-tenths (4.3 in September). Is more, came to be the only approved in-year to get a 5.1 in the barometer of may, The following is Paul, Married with 3.1 points. The leader of the PP maintains the same assessment that I had. A tenth more than Albert Rivera, Alberto Garzón, federal coordinator of IU-both had 3.2 in September – and Errejón. The secretary general of we Can, Pablo Churches is situated 2.9 points: in the previous barometer was 3.1 and in July his assessment was of 3.3 points. The worst rated, with difference, is Santiago Abascal, Vox, with a 2.2. As in September and a tenth less than in July.
CIS-2019-28A 2016 Seat assigned Seat insurance (99% probability) Seat likely (75% to 99%) Seat in the game (25% to 75%) is Seats in the fork minimum Seats to the fork maximum Seat assigned Province (Seats)PSOEPPCSUPVOXOtrosTotal Seguros1236657422438Madrid (37)Barcelona (32)Valencia (15)Alicante (12)Seville (12)Malaga (11)Murcia (10)Cadiz (9)A Coruña (8)Bizkaia (8)Illes Balears (8)Palms (8)Asturias (7)Grenade (7)Pontevedra (7)Santa Cruz de Tenerife (7)Zaragoza (7)Almeria (6)Badajoz (6)Cordoba (6)Gipuzkoa (6)Girona (6)Tarragona, (6)Toledo (6)Cantabria (5)Castellón (5)Royal City (5)Huelva (5)Jaén (5)Navarre (5)Valladolid, spain (5)Albacete (4)Araba / Alava (4), Burgos (4)Caceres (4)La Rioja (4)Lion (4)Lleida (4)Lugo (4), Ourense (4)Salamanca (4)Basin (3), Guadalajara (3)Huesca, spain (3)Spain (3)Segovia (3)Teruel (3)Zamora (3)Avila (3)Soria (2)Ceuta (1)Melilla (1) Seat assigned Province (Seats)PSOEPPCSUPVOXOtrosTotal Seguros85137327125Madrid (36)Barcelona (31)Valencia (16)Alicante (12)Seville (12)Malaga (11)Murcia (10)Cadiz (9)A Coruña (8)Illes Balears (8)Palms (8)Asturias (8)Grenade (7), Pontevedra (7)Santa Cruz de Tenerife (7)Zaragoza (7)Almeria (6)Badajoz (6)Cordoba (6)Girona (6)Tarragona, (6)Toledo (6)Cantabria (5)Castellón (5)Royal City (5)Huelva (5)Jaén (5)Navarre (5)Valladolid (5)Albacete (4)Araba / Alava (4)Bizkaia (4), Burgos (4)Caceres (4)Gipuzkoa (4)Huesca, Spain (3)La Rioja (4)Lion (4), Lleida (4)Lugo (4), Ourense (4)Salamanca (4)Basin (3), Guadalajara (3)Palencia (3), Segovia (3)Teruel (3)Zamora (3)Avila (3)Soria (2)Ceuta (1)Melilla (1)