The political advisers seeking to demonstrate that everything is under control, but what is certain is that the veterans know well that an election campaign is in chaos unpredictable where anything can alter plans. The PSOE, for example, I was very satisfied with the outcome of the debate on Monday, and expected a final quiet, but this Wednesday was found in a fire unexpected by a blunder of the president that this time, with the polls against him, has given more interviews than ever.
Pedro Sanchez has irritated prosecutors and has led to even an unusual statement against him to the association, a majority in fact —on the RADIO— that the Prosecutor’s office depends on the executive power, and that therefore everything you do to bring to Spain Carles Puigdemont is something that has to be attributed to the Government. The controversy has grown so much that first vice-president, Carmen Calvo, and after the president himself had to come out to clarify his words. “We will work for the Spanish judicial system can judge Puigdemont. The Prosecution has the backing of the Government in defense of the law and the public interest,” wrote Sanchez to find a balance point between your new speech lasted about Catalonia —in the debate he went on to say that Puigdemont “he escaped” a Government of the PP, and he will bring them back to Spain— and the respect for the autonomy of the judiciary.
Apart from the obvious error of Sanchez in the final stretch of a campaign where everything is still open, what has broken the schemes of all is the unstoppable rise of Vox. In July, when he began to think seriously in the repeat election after the failure of negotiations between the PSOE and United we Can, no survey progressed, a rise of the party of Santiago Abascal. On the contrary, after the european elections, regional and municipal, which slowed its growth, is given by the fact that the PP would absorb a good part of this vote, which mostly came from people who previously supported the formation of Pablo Casado. However, the crisis of Catalan seems to have given wings to the extreme right, who could become the third party, and that has been undermined completely the plans of campaign of almost all.
Abascal full the feud of the PSOE of Two Sisters and asks not “subverted” with the surveys, Vox squeezes into the final stretch catapulted the debate, The PSOE balances out your journey to the heart with the fear of Vox
In Spain it is forbidden to publish polls in the last days of the campaign, but that does not mean that you do not. The parties handle data of all types and the last to arrive, still preliminary, show that Vox continues to rise after an election debate in which almost no one wanted to confront with Abascal, something that has generated intense discussions in the parties.
In theory, the most affected should be the PP and Citizens, competitors, natural Vox in the right Spanish and the extreme right. However, the distribution of debris also could affect We or the PSOE.
In these days, the parties exude optimism in public, but in private the nerves are very evident. From the PSOE point out that Vox devouring Citizens and sinks the expectations of growth of the PP. The risk is that Vox will exceed in some provinces. The address of the popular, on the contrary, it ensures that if Cs is sinking and the vote is divided only between the PP and Vox could be beneficial for the right block. In fact they say that between these two parties could reach up to 150 seats. But that’s part of the base of the PP could go to 110, something which does not point to any survey. So unreal, it seems that figure as that mentioned by the PSOE, who believes that could happen as in 2016, when the polls showed Mariano Rajoy to a maximum of 120 in the repeat election and however came to the 137.
The only sure thing is that they have all moved their campaign in the last days according to the ascent of Vox. Sanchez, who avoided contrast with Abascal in the debate, he does now from the rallies, in a clear attempt to mobilize the left. This Wednesday has said that the PSOE is the only one that ensures a Government “brave” in front of the ultra-right “envalentonada” because PP and Cs are “cowardly” to Vox. Meanwhile, Pablo Iglesias has blamed “the economic policies of Merkel, Montoro and Calviño” and the media in the rise of Vox, and has proposed to combat it with social policies to protect citizens who might feel the temptation to support them.
regardless of the outcome of these elections, which concerned some political veterans from the left is the risk of the phenomenon French. There democracy seemed to be satisfied by the division of the vote of the right, which led to the National Front. But when it grew, the group of the Le Pen began to devour also the electorate communist and a social democrat, and now these parties are under the minimum. In Spain this phenomenon does not seem to have arrived yet, and the surveys do not detect that Vox is going into that vote left, but the debate Monday has triggered all the alarms for the future.