What is the consequence of a left turn Putin

the Logic in the decision of the authorities is — at least for now. Obviously, in response to falling oil prices and a significant drop in oil revenues, the Russian economy needs new sources of income. While a year ago the financial-economic bloc of the government acted primarily in the interests of big business, now there was an important turning point: Vladimir Putin showed economic solidarity with ordinary citizens, small and medium-sized businesses, rather than representatives of the “majors”. And it is extremely important to understand.

the Entire economic policy of the Russian state since 1991, based on the principle that a private owner is always more effective state, and among the traders preference should be given to “proven cases” of big businessmen. In other words, the oligarchs. They were saved in the first place after the crisis of 2008, helped them after the fall of the ruble in 2014, but not now. What happened?

first, we have changed the government. The ideologists of the liberal policy was challenged by a supporter of the mobilization model Andrei Belousov. “Eye-light”, as it was called in the eyes of colleagues, became known for proposing the oligarchs in 2018 to share the dividends from the windfall of $ 500 billion cumulatively for the implementation of national projects. But was then immediately subjected to obstruction all of the liberal camp, from RUIE to the representatives of individual state agencies. Now he was the ideologist of the new economy because of the proposal to tax output abroad funds, as well as input and 13% from interest on deposits, well within the new state logic.

second, given the budgeted $42 per barrel in the current $26 means that I will have to sequester the budget. State revenues decreased, therefore, need to find a new one. And here we can recall the well-known expression “people — it’s the same oil.” The question is, what kind of people. “Put on diet” big business in Russia have not prevented. I personally thought that Putin was in some step from the introduction of a progressive scale of taxation. And the following will be the step — careful and gradual, without abrupt jumps, increasing to 20 percent in the beginning for those who have a monthly income above 10 million per year, up to 30 per cent for those earning more than 100 million and so on.

No country with a strong social protection system in the world has such low taxes for the super-rich as Russia. Only us state through oil revenues subsidized the public sector. Across Europe, high pensions and unemployment benefits are paid from the pocket of the rich. This is absolutely normal practice, it is unclear why it is still not applied in Russia. Although if you explain it by the fact that until recently the country’s economic policies were in the interest of “equidistance” of oligarchs, then everything falls into place.

third, the national projects declared by the President, need extra income, not provided for in the current budget. And the national welfare Fund, which will have to print it, is not infinite. In other words, more simply nowhere to take.

Now, about the rates on interest on deposits of more than 1 million rubles — measures, which again will affect primarily the richest strata. If you lie in the Bank 1 million, with the current rate of the ruble, an average of about 5-6 percent per annum for the year you make 50-60 thousand rubles. The state of them will take only 13% — from 6500 roubles a year. Is it a lot? But if the accounts is 1 billion, and the tax on interest is already above 6.5 million with 50. Again: in all the countries of the enlightened West that we so love to compare ourselves like the tax rate on interest enough that normal things, and reach in some places up to 40-50%. The rich should help the poor through the redistribution of funds under the control of the state. It is the policy of the responsibility and protection of needy groups of citizens.

as for other measures — tax, mortgage and vacation credit of six months for the affected small and medium businesses, with all their incompleteness, they represent the same reversal of the state to ordinary citizens. This is only the first steps, but if the path in this direction will be continued in the near future it will be possible to see the translation of liberally oriented economy on the rails mobilization. In a period of escalating crisis in the least painful way. By the way, the particular irony of the current crisis is that just as many EU States (France, Spain) are starting to rapidly adopt the tools of the planned economy, the state administration transferred to private hospitals and real estate. Against this background, Putin’s decision is the most balanced and the least attempt on employers. But the blow is still felt: according to various estimates, the company provides up to 40 percent of the service sector, can become bankrupt if the coronavirus is not contained, and the economy is not out of the peak by early may. Of course, many have already cut staff or transferring employees on an hourly fee, as in the West.

a High likelihood that the citizens, accustomed to cover some other consumer loans, will soon lose this opportunity: due to delays in the payment of current loans, a new issue will become much less willing. But can grow dangerous micro lending market short term loans for people under cosmic interest. The same applies to the construction of new houses: they are often financed by new loans that banks will not master because of delays in the payment of the mortgage. Although if you have the opportunity to pay on time, it is better not to create debt — or in September will be triple harder to pay them off.

a Very important point — the end of the offshore economy. It is no secret that many big businessmen withdraw money abroad. In the current environment, this process could be frozen completely, but prezidUNT has decided only to impose a transfer of funds in foreign offshore tax rate of 15 percent. I’d like to believe that this is only the beginning, and the government will move to more drastic measures to limit the outflow of capital from the country. Because of this, Russia annually loses tens of billions of dollars: last year, the net capital outflow amounted to $25 billion, while in 2018 — $63 billion’m Sure the population is happy about the news on the increase in this rate at times.

of Course, this is Putin we’ve ever seen. Dawning hope that in Russia small shopkeeper or the average individual entrepreneur — not an oligarch, not a “big deal” and an ordinary citizen — will ever be able to become one of the stem ridges of the state’s economy. As in France or Germany. This economic reversal was useful for a long time. Good that it finally happened.